My most painful loss was also in politics. Ahead of the 2016 US presidential election, I backed Ted Cruz at every price under the sun to be the Republican candidate and, if he’d won, I’d have won six figures. I had reasons to believe Trump would drop out, but you know what happened next.
I could never win at football. No matter how systematic I was – and I kept a lot of detailed records about football matches – I just couldn’t win. I found I was good at cricket, though. The way I gamble is very knowledge driven and I think cricket offers the clever little betting angles I’m looking for. The more complicated and nuanced the sport, the more of these there are. In cricket, if you really understand variables like the weather, the nature of the pitch and how it’s going to change, the strength of a batting lineup and so on, you’re going to have a big edge because a lot of other people betting on the game are going to be sitting in front of their TV and they’re not going to be as meticulous.
A hedge fund for sports betting is a really interesting idea. I firmly believe the rate of return on sports betting outstrips what you can realistically achieve on most investments. You’d just have to find places that would accept your big bets. At an individual level, with a bit of research it’s easy enough to find a set of reliable tipsters offering free advice. If you followed that advice across a few different sports, with a consistent staking plan, it’s not unrealistic to think you could make returns of 20% a year. But not many people take sports betting that seriously; they see it as a bit of fun or something that students can do at uni to make a bit of spare cash.
A tip for 2021? Boris Johnson to go. He’s around 7/4 to leave his position as PM before the end of next year. That’s a good price – he’s a leader to win you an election, not to guide you through international crises. As for who replaces him, Rishi Sunak is a worthy favourite, but bear in mind that until Boris won the last one, favourites didn’t tend to win Tory leadership contests – just look at Duncan Smith! If I was looking for an outsider in the next one, Priti Patel’s an interesting option at around 20/1. The grassroots Tory membership loves her and it’s their votes that count.
Paul Krishnamurty is a professional gambler and freelance political and sports analyst. He blogs at PoliticalGambler.com and has written for CityAM, Esquire, GQ and Politico.